Best Books 2007: The Future Survey "Top 30"
Selected by Michael Marien (FS editor)
NOTE: These brief versions of abstracts published in Volume 29 (2007)—6% of the 500 yearly total—have been chosen for their breadth, importance, originality, authoritativeness, readability, and/or long-term perspective.WORLD FUTURES / SECURITY
• 2007 World Population Data Sheet. Carl Haub (Population Reference Bureau, Aug 2007/one page; 22x38").
Annual PRB report offers an easy and reliable way to scan the latest projections to 2025 and 2050 for all regions and countries. By 2050, world population will grow from 6.63 billion as of mid-2007 to 9.30 billion (40% growth). US population will grow from 302 million in 2007 to 349 million in 2025 and 420 million in 2050 (39% growth). Highly recommended. (FS 29:10/353)
• 2007 State of the Future. Jerome Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon (WFUNA and AC/UNU, Aug 2007/98p+CD).
The 11th annual report of the Millennium Project, derived from participants worldwide in 29 Project Nodes. Updates the useful overview of 15 Global Challenges; also sections on future education/learning possibilities by 2030, emerging environmental security issues, and the annual State of the Future Index. (FS 29:10/351)
• Vital Signs 2007-2008: The Trends That Are Shaping Our Future. Worldwatch Institute (W.W. Norton, Sept 2007/166p).
This 15th edition presents two-page essays with data, charts, and analysis for 27 Key Indicators and 17 Special Features. Indicators are in five categories: food/agriculture, energy/environment, social/economic, transport/communications, and conflict/peace. (FS 29:10/352)
• The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing. Paul Collier (Oxford U Press, June 2007/205p).
An Oxford economist reformulates the development issue by noting that, for 40 years, the focus has been on a poor world of 5 billion people. But most of these people live in countries that are now developing, and we now need to narrow the focus to the 1 billion people in some 60 small countries who are falling behind, and broaden the instruments to include five international charters. (FS 29:12/472)
• Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons. Joseph Cirincione (Columbia U Press, Feb 2007/206p).
"Optimists" call nukes beneficial and inevitable; "pessimists" warn of instability and unacceptable risks. This authoritative overview covers both sides, notes positive trends, and offers guidelines for future policies. (FS 29:4/103)
• Uniting Against Terror: Cooperative Nonmilitary Responses to the Global Terrorist Threat. Edited by David Cortright and George A. Lopez (MIT Press, Oct 2007/334p).
The long-term goal of defeating terrorism requires cooperative nonmilitary actions to end the underlying causes of extremism. This is a "generational struggle" with no quick fix or victory, requiring a clear and comprehensive strategy. (FS 29:12/456)
• The Next Catastrophe: Reducing Our Vulnerabilities to Natural, Industrial, And Terrorist Disasters. Charles Perrow (Princeton U Press, May 2007/377p).
Disasters from natural sources, industrial/technological sources, and from terrorism have all increased in recent decades, with no diminution in sight. We have most to fear from natural disasters, and the least from terrorism. Lengthy chapters are devoted to four areas deserving more concern: chemical plants, nuclear power plants, the national power grid, and the Internet. (FS 29:89/255)
• National Security and the Threat of Climate Change. CNA Corporation Military Advisory Board (CNA Corp, April 2007/63p).
A panel of 11 retired High-end US generals and admirals finds that projected climate change poses a serious threat to US national security, acting as a threat multiplier in volatile regions. It has the potential to create disasters "on a scale far beyond those we see today," and will add to tensions even in stable regions. (FS 29:7/207)
ENVIRONMENT / RESOURCES
• Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. IPCC Working Group III (Summary; May 2007/35p).
The third part of the latest report of the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, warning that global GHG emissions will grow by 40-110% in the 2000-2030 period under current policies. Points to energy efficiency options, new agricultural practices, forest-related actions as especially cost-effective. ALSO SEE 29:4/126-127 for reports from WG I & II. (FS 29:7/208) • Confronting Climate Change: Avoiding the Unmanageable and Managing the Unavoidable. UN Foundation and Sigma Xi (Feb 2007/166p)
A Scientific Expert Group warns that average temperature is expected to rise by 0.2oC to 0.4oC per decade, and that further increases beyond 2.0-2.5oC entails sharply rising risks of a climate tipping point. Proposes faster implementation of win-win solutions, a new global policy framework, strategies to adapt to change, rebuilding cities, and increased investment in new energy technology. (FS 29:4/132)
• The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Sir Nicholas Stern (Cambridge U Press, Jan 2007/712p).
An independent review for the UK Prime Minister, finding that "climate change is the greatest market failure the world has ever seen." The annual flow of emissions is accelerating, and the level of 550ppm could be reached by 2035, with at least a 77% chance of temperature rise exceeding 2oC. Stabilization requires emission levels to be reduced to >80% below current levels. Strong action to reduce emissions must be viewed as an investment. (FS 29:1/001)
• With Speed and Violence: Why Scientists Fear Tipping Points in Climate Change. Fred Pearce (Beacon Press, March 2007/278p).
Interviews with leading climate scientist highlight unfolding and potential climate catastrophes, notably huge methane releases that would speed global warming. As aptly described here, much about Earth’s climate system remains unknown, and climate change could be far worse than the IPCC suggests. (FS 29:4/130)
• Hell and High Water: Global Warming and What We Should Do. Joseph J. Romm (William Morrow, March 2007/292p).
Former Asst Secretary of Energy warns that Earth’s average temperature will probably rise 1.5oC by 2050 and >3oC by 2100. The 21C is described in three stages: Reap the Whirlwind (2000-2025) of more frequent and intense hurricanes; Planetory Purgatory (2025-2050) of drought and high temperatures; and Hell and High Water (2050-2100) of sea-level rise of 20-80 feet. Needed remedies are described. (FS 29:7/206)
• The World’s Water 2006-2007. Peter H. Gleick et al. (Island Press, Nov 2006/368p).
The fifth edition of an authoritative biennial survey, with chapters on water and terrorism, seawater desalination update (it remains a high-cost option), expected increase in floods and droughts, and water risks facing industry. ALSO SEE Human Development Report 2006 (UNDP/422p; FS 29:1/015), focusing on poverty and the global water crisis. (FS 29:1/016)
• OECD Environmental Performance Reviews: China (OECD, Aug 2007/336p).
Rapid economic development has generated severe and growing pressures on the environment, with significant damage to human health and resources. Everywhere, a lack of strong monitoring, inspection, and enforcement limits otherwise sound policies. ALSO SEE 29:10/374-375 for long articles in Foreign Affairs and The New York Times on this barrier to China’s success. (FS 29:10/376)
RETHINKING SOCIETY / HEALTH
• Infrastructure to 2030: Mapping Policy for Electricity, Water, and Transport. (OECD, Sept 2007/505p).
Final report of the OECD Futures Project on infrastructure needs, finding that "nowhere does the current public policy, regulatory, and planning framework appear adequate." Failure to make significant progress could prove costly in terms of congestion, unreliable supply, blunted competitiveness, and growing environmental problems. An essential survey for anyone with any interest in these three sectors. (FS 29:10/387)
• State of the World’s Cities. UN-Habitat (Earthscan, 2006/204p).
The world’s urban slum population could reach 1.4 billion by 2020—twice that of 1990. The UN has evaluated >100 countries on fighting urban poverty. Despite some successes, in >70% of countries slums now grow by 2-6% per year. Huge numbers lack durable housing, sufficient living area, access to water and improved sanitation, and secure tenure. Helping the poor integrate into urban society is the only long-lasting solution. (FS 29:3/062)
• Opening the Floodgates: Why America Needs to Rethink Its Borders and Immigration Laws. Kevin R. Johnson (New York U Press, Oct 2007/297p).
US immigration policy has failed. A new "open-borders system" would be simpler, more efficient,, safer, and more consistent with American values, without necessarily leading to a mass influx of new immigrants. Similar to illegal drugs, this is not likely to be embraced by politicians. Still, it’s a fresh fix for a contentious issue. (FS 29:12/494)
• A Bill of Rights for 21st Century America. Joseph F. Coates (Kanawha Institute For Future Study, July 2007/93p).
Much has changed in the 200+ years since the Bill of Rights was amended to the US Constitution. Suggested updates and additions address family composition, guaranteed employment, useful education, universal healthcare, privacy, voter equality, court reform, and more. Similar to Johnson (above), this is not likely to be embraced soon, but seeks to initiate the process of consideration. (FS 29:9/301)
• A Second Opinion: Rescuing America’s Health Care. A Plan for Universal Coverage. Arnold S. Relman, M.D. (Public Affairs, April 2007/205p).
Former editor of the New England J. of Medicine critiques the "medical-industrial complex" in the US, arguing that the US health care system is in a tailspin. Only major reform will prevent its impending crash: a simplified, single-payer insurance system, providing everyone with a standard package of benefits, funded by a graduated earmarked health care tax. (FS 29:11/442)
• The Medicalization of Society: On the Transformation of Human Conditions Into Treatable Disorders. Peter Conrad (Johns Hopkins U Press, June 2007/204p).
In recent decades, the number of life problems defined as medical has increased enormously. Driving forces include support of doctors, new and profitable treatments, insurance coverage, groups that promote or challenge medical conditions, and the growing consumer culture for health-related products and services. Genetic research may be the next frontier. (FS 29:7/245)
• The Real Wealth of Nations: Creating a Caring Society. Riane Eisler (Berrett-Koehler, April 2007/318p).
A new way of looking at economics is needed to address the many chronic problems of the world: economic models and policies that support caring for ourselves, others, and our environment. Six elements of a new economic map: household production based on caregiving, the unpaid community economy, the market economy, the illegal economy, government, and the natural economy. ALSO SEE 29:8/298 and 29:12/474 on the need for a honest economics for the 21C. (FS 29:8/297)
TECHNOLOGY / METHODS
• World Energy Outlook 2006. International Energy Agency (OECD, Nov 2006/596p).
The world faces twin threats: inadequate and insecure supplies of energy at affordable prices, and environmental harm caused by consuming too much energy. The threat to world energy security is real and growing, and meeting growing demand will require massive investment of >$20 trillion through 2030. (FS 29:11/409)
• Energy Technology: Scenarios and Strategies to 2050. International Energy Agency (OECD, 2006/479p).
A comprehensive and detailed analysis of key energy technologies of the next 50 years, in accord with the G8 Plan of Action. Offers six scenarios and chapters on energy efficiency, clean coal, CO2 capture and storage, generation IV nuclear, wind, solar, hydrogen, and biofuels. ALSO SEE FS 29:1/018 for a guide to conventional and alternative energy sources such as synthetic crude, fusion, tidal, and geothermal. (FS 29:1/017)
• Biofuels for Transport: Global Potential and Implications for Sustainable Energy and Agriculture. Worldwatch Institute (Earthscan, April 2007/452p).
Everything you ought to know—or ponder—about rapidly growing biofuels: global industry trends, new technologies and energy crops, long-term production potentials, key economic/social/environmental issues, introduction strategies, country case studies, and more. (FS 29:11/414) • Mobile Communications and Society: A Global Perspective. Manuel Castells et al. (MIT Press, Jan 2007/331p).
Wireless communication has diffused faster than any other communication technology. Mobile phones overtook mainlines in 2003, and are now well ahead. Youth culture has driven the diffusion and the key feature of "relentless connectivity" and "instant communities" that deepen the network society. (FS 29:3/083)
• Reset: Changing the Way We Look at Video Games. Rusel DeMaria (Berrett-Koehler, May 2007/226p).
Video games are now big business, with global revenues of $41-51 billion predicted for 2010. Making these games now requires teams of >100 specialists, and can cost in the tens of millions. As of early 2006, there were 70 million regular online game players. The next step for video games is to become an intentional medium of positive change in individuals and society. (FS 29:8/269)
• Thinking About the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight. Edited by Andy Hines and Peter Bishop (Social Technologies, Dec 2006/242p).
A set of 115 guidelines for strategic foresight is systematically organized in six sequential categories: Framing, Scanning, Forecasting, Visioning, Planning, and Acting. Offers tested tips and caveats on nearly every futures method, supplied by 36 members of the Association of Professional Futurists. (FS 29:3/096)
The Change Handbook: Today’s Best Methods for Engaging Whole Systems (Second Edition). Peggy Holman, Tom Devane, and Steven Cady (Berrett-Koehler, Jan 2007/723p).
A hefty guide to 61 planning and structuring methods that can enable organizations and communities to better promote preferred futures. Advice is provided on how to select, mix, and match the methods, which include World Café, appreciative inquiry, Future Search, community summits, and large-group scenario planning. (FS 29:3/098)
• The Leaders We Need: And What Makes Us Follow. Michael Maccoby (Harvard Business School Press, Nov 2007/249p).
A well-known consultant/psychoanalyst writes that in times of great cultural change, such as the present, people need leaders to take them to a positive future—leaders motivated to achieve the common good, who can educate people about forces changing the world and galvanize a creative response. Very timely. Effective leadership makes a huge difference in shaping futures. (FS 29:10/397)
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